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2018 Kentucky Oaks: Odds, Analysis, Free PPs

Free past performances for the feature race of the day

When Mike Smith is given the leg up on Midnight Bisou for the 2018 Kentucky Oaks on Friday he could be sitting on top of the first half of the Oaks/Derby Double that would be a hit if he wins with both favorites on Friday and Saturday.

Midnight Bisou is on a three-race win streak and will enter the starting gate for the 1 1/8 miles Kentucky Oaks as the odds-on choice to take the historic race for three-year-old fillies in America.

The $1 million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks was first run on May 19th, 1875 and won by a filly named Vinaigrette who was campaigned by A.B. Lewis & Co. Vinaigrette completed the 1 1/2 miles distance in 2:39.75 – exactly two seconds slower than Aristides ran the same distance in the first running of the Kentucky Derby that year.

Kentucky Oaks 2018 Post Positions, Odds, Analysis & Free PPs

(Note: Horses listed in post position order)

1.) Sassy Sienna (15-1) – Got graded win LTO in the Fantasy by a nostril at a nice price over Wonder Gadot. Will have to go a little longer this time around against her toughest competition to date. Added interest if it comes up an off-track on Friday. Otherwise, a notch below the top ones in here.

2.) Coach Rocks (12-1) – Went from a maiden winner two back to a G2 victor in the Gulfstream Parks Oaks in her last. She’s now 2 for 2 stretching out this daughter of Preakness winner Oxbow has shown improvement that merits consideration across the board for this one.

3.) Classy Act (15-1) – Blinkers come off of this miss who was second to the favorite two back in the Rachel Alexandra two back. Has always shown early foot and will have to carry her speed an extra 1/16 miles but can’t see her style changing enough to be a contender from off the pace.

4.) Chocolate Martini (12-1) – Was a $15K maiden winner at Fair Grounds before being claimed for $25K in next start by Amoss who has won back to back races including the Fair Grounds Oaks in last start at long odds. Gets future HOF jockey Castellano and is sitting on a best of 43 bullet going 5/8s here a week ago. Note that Amoss is just 8% in graded tries but give him credit for taking a shot with up and coming filly.

5.) Wonder Gadot (20-1) – Velazquez back aboard to give this gal another shot after three close calls at Fair Grounds and a 2nd in the Fantasy LTO. Started career on turf as a winner in Ontario and quickly moved up the ranks in graded company with biggest win coming in G2 Demoisel at Aqueduct at this distance. But the fact that she’s been defeated by several in here makes her an unlikely longshot.

Free 2018 Kentucky Oaks Past Performances

6.) Kelly’s Humor (30-1) – Won first two at Ellis before a second place finish in the Pocahontas. Toss the Golden Rod in which they tried a different strategy by adding blinkers and sending her from the 10 hole to try and set the pace to no avail. She was back to herself last time in the Beaumont coming from off the pace to be runner-up but doesn’t have the look of a long-distance challenger.

7.) Rayya (12-1) – Was second last time out in the UAE Derby 18+ lengths back of Mendelssohn who goes in the Derby. And she was 4 clear of the show horse. So essentially she was the winner because the actual winner was in a race with himself. Comes to the states and will be saddled by the “white knight” Bob Baffert to give her every shot at winning this one. She’ll get Lasix for the first time and a new rider. But she’s interesting nonetheless.

8.) Heavenhasmynikki (50-1) – On the board in three of four starts and has been tested in graded company at Gulfstream in last two. But she’ll have to go an extra furlong longer than she’s ever been before for a trainer who’s 0 for 11 in graded tries.

9.) Take Charge Paula (15-1) – Has the speed to lead all the way and gets blinkers for the first-time. Will have to go an extra 1/16 miles for high percentage barn in all categories. Was the beaten favorite in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in last, but was 10 clear of the show horse. Still gotta believe she’ll have a hard time hanging on against the best in her class.

10.) Midnight Bisou (5-2) – Caught the undefeated and early Oaks favorite Dream Tree losing by a nose twice in her first two starts. Then went on a tear winning her last three including a change of style in the off-the-pace win LTO in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks. HOF jockey Smith looking for both halves of the Oaks/Derby Double and if she likes the track she will be tough to beat.

11.) My Miss Lilly (10-1) – Last race Beyer (95) second only to Monomoy Girl (95) and she’s improved in each start. But New York circuit winners are not the same in Kentucky and this gal’s two wins came at Aqueduct. Has the win at the distance which is a plus but picks up the package today and will have to carry another seven pounds.

12.) Patrona Margarita (30-1) – Started career here winning a 4 1/2 furlong MSW. And upset the Pocahontas at long-odds before catching Monomoy Girl in last two. Gets a new rider for good outfit but she’s proven she’s a few notches below the favorite.

13.) Eskimo Kisses (15-1) – Took four tries to break her maiden, finally getting the win in a 1 mile off-the-pace at Oaklawn. Returned next time out to win by 11 going 1 1/16 miles in the slop. Stepped up to finish a head back in the G2 FG Oaks and was second best again in the Ashland. Gets Lasix back and Lanerie sticks which could put her right there in the end — especially if it comes up wet on Friday.

14.) Monomoy Girl (2-1) – Came up a neck short in the G2 Golden Rod or she’d be undefeated. Won her fifth race LTO in the G1 Ashland and has the advantage of being the hometown hero. Her chart shows she’s got the right kind of run to break from the parking lot and will be tough to handle as the Kentucky Oaks favorite.

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