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Belmont Stakes: Odds, Analysis + Free PPs

Free past performances for the 2019 Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 8, 2019 at Belmont Park in New York. Courtesy of Brisnet.

UPDATED: Morning line odds as of 6/4/19*

Free Belmont Stakes Past Performances (UPDATED: June 5, 2019)

PP Horse Trainer Odds
1 Joevia Sacco 30-1
Why? But in case you’re interested, here’s an article on that’s getting some attention and a case for how Joevia will affect the pace and possible outcome of the Belmont.
2 Everfast Romans 12-1
What does it say about this year’s crop of 3YOs when this guy passes a bunch of tired horses to take second in the Preakness at 30-1? His 10 past performance running lines scream “also ran” despite having placed twice at long odds in the Holy Bull and LTO at Pimlico. In both of those, he earned his high 94 BRIS speed figure which appears to be enough to garner some support as a possible contender in the Belmont given the likely Belmont favorite and Preakness winner War of Will’s BRIS high figure is just two points higher at 96. Again, what does it say about this year’s 3YOs? Alot.
3 Master Fencer Tsunoda 8-1
Started career on turf in Japan running the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. But it wasn’t until he was switched to dirt in his third career start that he was able to get his first taste of victory. Repeated right back on dirt before a series of three races culminating with a seventh place finish over the sloppy Derby surface – while if considering his unsuccessful attempts on turf could be an explanation for his worst placing to date. It’ll be interesting to see if Leparoux returns in the saddle for the Belmont. Too early to say any more.
4 Tax Gargan 15-1
Maiden winner in a $50K claimer at Keeneland in his second start, he showed he belongs in this weak Class of ’19 contenders when finishing in the money in the G2 Remsen behind early Derby Trail hot horse Maximus Mischief. Won the Withers in his next start before showing signs of weakness in the Wood behind Tacitus when the waters got deeper. It’s only fair to toss his Derby run but his style of pressing the pace and the added distance of the Belmont won’t help his cause.
5 Bourbon War Hennig 12-1
Well it took awhile but Hennig seems to have committed the 8th place finisher in the Preakness to the Belmont Stakes. And while struggling to find a reason as to why, a couple of things stand out on paper. Prior to the Preakness he was no worse than fourth in five tries and was bet down to single digit odds since breaking his maiden at first asking. Fourth in the Florida Derby behind Maximum Security, his 31 points wasn’t enough to get him into the starting gate in Louisville. In Maryland, he was equipped with blinkers for the first time and failed to fire so it’ll be interesting to see if the hood comes off in New York. So that’s one reason why he may be given another shot against what is a mediocre field of three year olds. But perhaps the more obvious and duly noted reason is that like early Belmont favorite Tacitus, he’s a son of Tapit whose prodigy has been on the winning end of the Belmont Stakes in 2014 (Tonalist), 2016 (Creator), and in 2017 (Tapwrit). Has the typical Tapit style of making one run at the leaders and will be adding three furlongs to his longest distance yet. Dam won twice in her brief career on turf. Did not like the blinkers in the Preakness so a change would do him good in the Belmont.
6 Spinoff Pletcher 15-1
Right off the bat his 5 furlong sprint victory in his maiden voyage at Gulfstream says alot about his ability to get the classic distances. Was third in the Saratoga special beating one horse home going 6 1/2. Pletcher gave him plenty of time to develop between the summer of ’18 and his next out win by 11 lengths beating just 4 others at Tampa to start the year. Tried the ‘Trail’ at Fair Grounds and looked like the winner of the G2 Louisiana Derby only to get caught by long shot By My Standards. Pletcher says toss the Derby try last time and expect him to be very contentious. But don’t expect he’ll have the same opportunity to go unchallenged by War of Will who had a troubled start in the Crescent City that day.
7 Sir Winston Casse 12-1
Like stablemate War of Will, started career on all-weather at Woodbine where he got his only two wins. But unlike ‘WOW’ the switch to dirt hasn’t proved to be a success for Mr. Winston. Exits his best BRIS 101 effort in the G3 Peter Pan here LTO. Expect him to be midpack and stalking with a chance to pounce on the top tier as they begin to tire.
8 Intrepid Heart Pletcher 10-1
Third in the G3 Peter Pan last time out, it’s always an advantage to have a race over the track. Prior to the PP he was a winner at Keeneland in his first out after maiden victory at Oaklawn. That’s a pretty good stat but the fact that he will probably face off against the Peter Pan runner-up Sir Winston who preceded him to the wire by nearly five lengths, he’ll have to at least make up that much ground on him. Add to that the fact that the Peter Pan only had five horses and we’ll have to dig harder to find reason to believe in someone like him.
9 War of Will Casse 2-1
Winner of the Preakness after a troubled trip in the Derby, he rebounded at a nice price to win the second leg of the Triple Crown exceeding handicapper’s expectations at 6-1. From the catbird seat, Gaffalione had him sitting pretty along the rail throughout the early stages of the Preakness on a day when the rail position won six races. Prior to the Preakness I said to give him another chance after the Derby debacle even though I don’t believe the troubled trip was as big a factor in his defeat as was the sloppy surface and the Derby distance. Too early to tell much about his chances in the Belmont.
10 Tacitus Mott 9-5
Love the fact that he started his career at “the Big Sandy” splitting an eight horse field going 1 1/16 miles right out of the gate. Shortened up to break his maiden at Aqueduct going 1 mile in his next start, on his way to winning the G2 Tampa Derby and the G2 Wood Memorial. With his stalking style, regular rider Ortiz had him perfectly placed to finish fourth in the crowded Derby field and expect he’ll show up big for Mott who finally got a Derby win with stablemate Country House. But that one passed the Preakness and will skip the Belmont. Here’s hoping for a fast track.
*NOTE: Belmont PPs provided by and can be found online at Belmont 2019 Contenders | Morning line odds set by

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