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Fayette Stakes: Odds, Analysis + Free PPs

Free past performances for the feature race of the day

Free past performances for the Fayette Stakes 2019 on Saturday, October 26, 2019 at Keeneland. Courtesy of DRF.com. See last row of table below for DRF PPs.

PP Horse Trainer Odds
1 The Great Day Delacour 20-1
This day, closing day of Keeneland’s Fall Meet, could indeed be a great day for wagering on this live longshot as he returns to dirt where he’s done his best running in his native Argentina. Son of Harlan’s Holiday, who won the Blue Grass Stakes in 2002 on dirt at Keeneland, gets top connections for the final feature race of the Fall in Kentucky. The right distance and the right spot for taking a shot.
2 Mr. Freeze Romans 7-2
Started career with back-to-back victories taking his maiden opener at Keeneland going 7F and his next out going two turns at Churchill. His second place trip to Iowa for last year’s Iowa Derby set him on a path to the G3 West Virginia Derby in his next start where he ran off to an eight length score at almost 7-1. Tried McKinzie in the G1 PA Derby and was crushed. Toss the next out turf try in the Tropical at Gulfstream and he’s a top contender on return to Kentucky. Took his last out G3 Ack Ack and his last three were at 1 mile. Plenty of breaks in his running lines, Romans is 0 for 15 at the meet and Albarado is 1 for 32, so gotta think he’s vulnerable in here.
3 Tom’s d’Etat Stall 2-1
ML favorite for Gayle Benson Racing has had plenty of success going back to a four race win streak at 4 and 5 years old running non-graded races. But at this level, the success faded to second and third place finishes in graded tries. Last two outings at Saratoga were decent, but he’s been off for two months. Sure, they want to win this but chances are he’s on his way back home to the Fair Grounds where it all started for him. Too short a price.
4 Everfast Romans 20-1
Obviously talented 3YO homebred for Calumet who contested G1 company in five of his last six starts as a NW2 lifetime. Will appreciate the downgrade but still faces multiple graded winners over a track where he finished 8th in the Breeders’ Futurity last year. For comparison, his sire was 4th in the 2011 Breeders’ Futurity and 3rd in the Fayette the following year. Tough to see how he gets up in here.
5 Mocito Rojo Wilson 6-1
He’s 21 of 25 in the money, winning 17 times, and on a five race win streak culminating with his best ever LTO in the G3 Lukas Classic at Churchill as he ventured away from the deep south surfaces in Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. This will be his biggest challenge yet. But if you don’t run, you can’t win, as connections face off against big name jockeys and trainers with a chance to make it six in a row. Interesting.
6 Tenfold Asmussen 15-1
Another exiting the Lukas Classic where he was “never involved” in a toss out effort. But this could be a sign of good things to come from that race. Will need to come from the clouds to make it home first but possible given Mocito Rojo will have pace company throughout. Skipped the ’18 Derby but did face Justify in the final two legs of the TC and was not embarrassed. Added blinkers several races back which seems to have made things worse for him and there’s no indication that he won’t be wearing them again for connections having minimal success at the meet. Longshot.
7 Core Beliefs Eurton 8-1
Hasn’t raced in 3 months when he last faced Catalina Cruiser (who will either go in the Breeders’ Cup Classic or more likely the Breeders’ Cup Sprint) and Mongolian Groom (who has been pre-entered for the Classic) finishing last in the 4 horse San Diego Handicap at Del Mar. Talamo will get the leg up for trainer who isn’t known for traveling away from the West Coast very often. Won the New Orleans Handicap and the Ohio Derby as two of his only three lifetime wins, making him eligible for NW4, but don’t discount his chances as a live shot in this mediocre G2.
8 Bal Harbour Pletcher 7-2
Winner in his only start at Keeneland at 3, he’s faced less than stellar G3 company at Monmouth in 3 of his last 4 as an on the board finisher. Best ever performance LTO in the G1 Woodward as the runner up behind Preservationist. Gets Gaffalione who is 1 for 1 in the saddle on this guy for Team Pletcher. Should be the pacesetter, but he’s 0 for 4 in trips to the winner’s circle at this distance. Underlay.
9 Own Agenda DeVaux 30-1
Glaring 0 for 3 in starts at Keeneland (all runner up showings). And nary a start for more than NW2X optional claiming, so the boxcar number in the morning line tells us all we need to know about this guy’s chances and would be a shocker.
10 Big Dollar Bill Wilkes 12-1
Could be the horse for the course as he’s 3 for 3 at Keeneland, and exits the aforementioned Lukas Classic with regular rider Landeros. Took a long break after competing in the G2 Marathon on Breeders’ Cup Friday last year and didn’t return until August at Ellis so something happened that warranted a breather. But going back to last year he followed a similar pattern of one race a month prior to the Marathon so this could be the one making his third start of the year. Shot at a price
*NOTE: Fayette Stakes PPs provided by DRF.com and can be found online at Fayette Stakes 2019 Past Performances

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