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Free Brisnet Past Performances, Odds and Analysis of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Contenders

2018 Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 5, Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

Saturday, May 5, 2018 | Churchill Downs | Louisville, Kentucky | Post Time: 6:56 PM Eastern

Gates & Post Times for the 2018 Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks

Four of Top 5 Derby leaderboard contenders hail from Todd Pletcher barn

The May 5th Kentucky Derby is fast approaching and the probable field of contenders is all but set with the completion of all the Derby prep races. Magnum Moon, winner of last weekend’s Arkansas Derby, ranks number one on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 150 points. The Todd Pletcher trainee will enter the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby undefeated in his four career starts.

At number two in points earned is Good Magic (134) who was the 2017 Eclipse award winning two-year-old champion trained by Chad Brown. Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and this year’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in his last start.

Rounding out the top five are three other horses from the Todd Pletcher barn including Audible at #3 with 110 points. On a four-race win streak, he was an impressive winner of the Florida Derby last time out. The Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy (#4, 110) wore blinkers for the first time in New Orleans and has won three of his four lifetime starts. At #5 with 107 points is the Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso who turned in his best performance stretching out to win easily in New York. John Velazquez was aboard all three runners and will have a choice to make as to which he’ll be aboard come Derby Day. But a quick glance at the running lines in the past performances indicates he’ll likely be aboard Winstar Farm’s Audible on the first Saturday in May in Kentucky.

WizCapper’s Early Analysis of the Top 20 Derby Contenders


HORSE Wynn Las Vegas ODDS
(As of April 26, 2018)
LAST RACE, FINISH, BEYER, REPLAY WIZCAPPER COMMENTS (Note: Keep checking back for updates as we get closer to Derby Day.)
Good Magic 5-1 Blue Grass, 1st, 95,  Watch Replay Dispelled any concerns after failing to win his season opener in the Fountain of Youth by returning with a nice win over second and third level Derby contenders in the G2 Blue Grass last time out.
Audible 9-1 Florida Derby, 1st, 99,  Watch Replay New York bred has been solid since day one winning his last four and stamping his mark as a strong contender by winning the Florida Derby and gives Pletcher his best shot of the four he has going into the Derby.
Noble Indy 28-1 Louisiana Derby, 1st, 95,  Watch Replay Grinded out the win in the Louisiana Derby wearing blinkers for the first time and wondering “if” had he not worn them. Definitely the lesser child of the Winstar runners to make it into the field.
Vino Rosso 14-1 Wood Memorial, 1st, 98,  Watch Replay Had to win the Wood and did so with ease. But the Wood winner is rarely a strong challenger to win the Roses and this guy is no exception.
Bolt d’Oro 8-1 Santa Anita Derby, 2nd, 102,  Watch Replay Early favorite to win in Louisville, he has received the most votes in our “Who will win the Kentucky Derby” poll. But I’m guessing supporters are losing hope after back-to-back seconds (regardless of the official San Felipe outcome). Was no match for Justify in the Santa Anita Derby and Castellano has jumped ship for a more realistic shot.
Enticed 20-1 Wood Memorial, 2nd, 93,  Watch Replay Runner-up last time out in the Wood when stretching out. Usually like the KYJC winners in the Derby but this guy has distance concerns and appears better suited as a miler.
Mendelssohn 6-1 UAE Derby, 1st, 106,  Watch Replay First four career starts were on the turf in the UK and traveled to the States to win the BC Juvenile Turf last year. Opened the year winning on the all-weather before taking the UAE Derby in Dubai (now run on dirt) by 18 lengths. Son of Scat Daddy will come back to the states with the first real shot at winning the Kentucky Derby as a Euro.
Justify 3-1 Santa Anita Derby, 1st, 107,  Watch Replay Scat Daddy happens to be this guy’s sire too. Won the SA Derby last time out on cruise control but hasn’t really been tested. Will probably open as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby because of his connections. Can’t call him the automatic winner with several others starting to develop late like him.
Flameaway 30-1 Blue Grass, 2nd, 93,  Watch Replay Running style not well-suited for the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby but showed plenty of grit in the Blue Grass leading through the first six furlongs before giving way to a superior Good Magic. Has enough speed to keep the pace honest but distance will be a factor for this son of Scat Daddy.
Bravazo 75-1 Louisiana Derby, 8th, 64,  Watch Replay Son of 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again stunned the Fair Grounds crowd when he won the Risen Star at long odds to give Lukas fans something to cheer about. But the reality of this guys place in the class of 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders was revealed when he failed to live up to the hype in the Louisiana Derby as an underlay at 3-1.
Promises Fulfilled 75-1 Florida Derby, 9th, 47,  Watch Replay Son of the now retired Romans runner Shackleford and like his sire has plenty of speed. Won the Fountain of Youth over Good Magic and earned a big BRIS speed figure 104. Came out “washy” for the Florida Derby and stopped after a half mile. Not a bad idea to toss that one and expect him to show much better form in the Derby.
Magnum Moon 6-1 Arkansas Derby, 1st, 98  Watch Replay Sits atop the points leaderboard and will join three other stablemates from the Pletcher barn who will enter the starting gate with improving form and each with a great shot to win it all.
Instilled Regard 35-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4th,  Watch Replay  Was part of the 5 horse debacle that was the Los Al Futurity. Won the Lecomte but returned in defeat to longshot Bravazo in the Risen Star and was no match for Justify in the SA Derby LTO. Would be a shocker.
Combatant 40-1 Arkansas Derby, 2nd, 92  Watch Replay Broke his maiden at CD in second start going turf to dirt. But has given the feeling ‘he doesn’t want to get there’ in five subsequent starts. One of several who with the same “one-run” style makes him eligible to complete the exotics but a win would surprise.
Free Drop Billy 35-1 Blue Grass, 3rd, 89,  Watch Replay  First four races of career had him being counted “in that number” but when the real test came in the BC Juvenile he was exposed. And has been more of an “also ran” in his last three preps.
Lone Sailor 50-1 Louisiana Derby, 2nd, 95,  Watch Replay  Took the lead in mid-stretch of the Louisiana Derby and appeared on his way to victory before Noble Indy fought back to take it by a neck. Off-the-pace type is in the lower echelons of this year’s crop.
Hofburg 35-1 Florida Derby, 2nd, 94,  Watch Replay  Juddmonte homebred went from a maiden winner two back, to a second place finish behind Audible in the Florida Derby and earned a 104 BRIS speed figure in the process. He’s fresh and he’s got the right style to run BIG in the Derby.
Solomini 30-1 Arkansas Derby, 3rd, 92  Watch Replay  Won the Los Al Futurity off a 2nd place finish to Good Magic in the BC Juvenile. DQ’d that day to be 3rd in a 5 horse field. Twice beaten by Magnum Moon making him one of the lesser than’s from the Baffert contingent of contenders.
My Boy Jack 25-1 Lexington Stakes, 1st, 90  Watch Replay Started career on turf in SoCal as a one-run miler and has developed into a deep closer. His win in the G3 Southwest over the muddy Oaklawn strip was reminiscent of Exaggerator’s strengths. Couldn’t make up any ground in the 1 1/8 Louisiana Derby but got there shortening up last time in the Lexington.

Free Brisnet Past Performances – Early Edition

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