Recapping Future Wager Pool 3 Final Odds

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: February 15, 2021

Churchill Downs Home of the Kentucky Derby

WizCapper’s Analysis of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 betting interests after the close of betting.

No.	Horse	ML Odds	Updated Odds*	Closing Odds
1.	Caddo River	12	20	15
Keep an eye on price at closing time. If he stays here or higher – take it. UPDATE: 15-1 is a good speculative price that he’ll be able to get 1 1/8 miles or more. But that’s a “gamble.”
2.	Candy Man Rocket	20	37	35
Going up as expected. He should be in the “field.”
3.	Concert Tour	20	15	17
Nothing that happened yesterday in the preps indicates a reason for the drop in price. If he keeps going down, wait until Derby Day. UPDATE: Went up late. But it’s Baffert.
4.	Dream Shake	20	32	28
With only 1 race in the books, if you can imagine a scenario for him you can bet him going up. Good closing odds.
5.	Essential Quality	8	7	8
BC Juvenile winner drops only 1 point after Rombauer won the El Camino Real yesterday exiting the Juvenile. Should be going up in price. Wait. UPDATE: Seems waiting is the right move on him.
6.	Fire At Will	50	27	30
Dropped 23 points to open today but this is a “future wager” on a horse who’s a proven turf runner. Pass. UPDATE: Somebody imagined him a winner and dropped a bet on him. Still passing.
7.	Freedom Fighter	20	48	52
Going up as expected. Not a Derby distance horse. UPDATE: Baffert runner going up and should be in the “field.”
8.	Greatest Honour	15	9	9
Big drop in price for son of 9th place finisher Tapit in 2004 Derby. Holy Bull win LTO was nice. But you could get 9-1 on Derby Day without the risk he doesn’t make it to the gate.
9.	Highly Motivated	20	45	37
No interest on this Brown runner, yet. Will have to go two turns soon or else he’s out. Pass
10.	Hot Rod Charlie	20	38	35
2nd place finisher in BC Juvenile going up in price. Lowers expectations for Essential Quality.
11.	Jackie’s Warrior	30	25	26
Broke maiden sprinting at CD in first attempt. Then reeled off three graded wins to enter Juvenile starting gate as heavy favorite. Fell short at the added distance. If you think this one will get better as they get longer, then go for it at 20-1 or higher.
12.	Keepmeinmind	20	20	25
Scratched from the Risen Star yesterday so nothing to go on. But gut tells me he’s not the one.
13.	Life Is Good	8	7	7
Too short to play in futures
14.	Mandaloun	30	20	16
Dropped 10 after winning the Risen Star. If he gets to the Derby he’ll be less than 20 but wouldn’t take less today.
15.	Medina Spirit	20	24	25
If you’re betting Baffert and you like longshots, this is your guy. But we’ll pass.
16.	Midnight Bourbon	30	30	41
Had to chase an unsuspecting leader in Risen Star and faded to 3rd. He’s a sprinter. Pass
17.	Nova Rags	30	88	91
If this one and Candy Man are Mott’s hopes then he has none. Pass.
18.	Prevalence	20	12	14
Remember, this is the futures so while 12 might look good today, it’s not enough this far out
19.	Risk Taking	15	28	25
Going up as he should. Tough to like NY circuit runners in Louisville.
20.	Roman Centurian	30	46	41
Only win was with Lasix. If he needs it, he won’t get it in the Derby.
21.	Senor Buscador	30	28	39
Risen Star was a flop. He’s not Derby material.
22.	Swiftsure	30	93	74
Can Asmussen make a late move with this guy? At 100-1 he’s worth a $20. UPDATE: Someone took a shot late.
23.	The Great One	20	37	38
Not sure who “The Great One” is but sire won the Derby. Needed Lasix to break maiden LTO. Pass.
24.	All Other 3-Yr Olds	7/2	4	3
Pool 3, so price is going up. But if the eventual Derby winner is somewhere in the “all others” than you’ll get much more than 4-1 on him. UPDATE: 3-1 is better than 0-1 — unless one of the “outsiders” wins.